This week highlights include US CPI and Retail Sales, UK CPI and Jobs report, China trade and GDP, Aussie Jobs, and CPI from Canada and Japan.

Monday

Markets begin the week with focus on the expiration of the EU’s 90-day retaliatory tariff pause, which formally ends Monday. While no immediate reimposition of duties is expected, the end of this truce removes a diplomatic buffer in the broader US–EU trade standoff, particularly as Washington’s latest “Liberation Day” tariffs take effect this month. The lapse in pause heightens the sensitivity of EUR crosses and industrial equities to any new retaliatory measures that could follow.

Attention also turns to Asia, with India releasing June wholesale price index (WPI) data, and China publishing its June trade balance. While no official consensus is available for the Chinese figures, recent Caixin manufacturing PMIs hinted at a modest trade recovery. New orders picked up slightly on domestic demand, but new export orders fell for a third consecutive month—albeit at a slower pace. ING expects only a mild uptick in exports and imports, noting the absence of significant trade frontloading despite the ongoing US–China tariff ceasefire. Meanwhile, supply chains remain under pressure, with delivery delays reported again in June. The data will be watched closely for any early signs of decoupling between production sentiment and external demand as Beijing attempts to stabilise industrial activity.

Tuesday

Tuesday delivers a macro deluge led by Chinese Q2 GDP, retail sales, and house prices—all in sharp focus as the country confronts a slowing economy and persistent deflation risk. According to a Reuters poll, China’s Q2 GDP is expected to grow 5.1% Y/Y (vs 5.4% Q1) and 0.9% Q/Q (vs 1.2% Q1), with the YTD rate at 5.6%. Analysts broadly agree that while Beijing will likely hit its “around 5%” growth target, the underlying momentum is weakening. Retail sales may show some resilience, but industrial production and investment trends have softened, and housing data continues to reflect a downturn. Two straight months of declining prices have fuelled speculation about real estate stimulus, especially after property shares surged last week amid rumors of a high-level policy meeting. Traders will be watching for any sharp downside surprises that could prompt Beijing to accelerate RRR or LPR cuts—currently expected by Q4.

German WPI, Eurozone industrial production (May), and the ZEW survey round out the European calendar. The latter will offer insight into German investor sentiment at a time of increasing industrial weakness.

The US releases June CPI, where headline and core M/M inflation are both expected at +0.3% (vs +0.1% prior). Wells Fargo warns that tariff-related cost pass-throughs may be creating a “bump rather than a spike” in core inflation. Fed officials, including Waller and Bowman, have suggested tariff effects may prove transitory—potentially allowing for cuts if core pressures stay mild. Still, money markets remain cautious, pricing less than a 5% chance of a July cut, but two full cuts by year-end. Tuesday’s inflation print will be pivotal in determining whether that outlook holds.

Canada also reports June CPI, with the outcome likely to influence expectations for the July 30 BoC meeting. The Bank remains in wait-and-see mode, citing offsetting forces: downward inflation pressure from soft growth and upward pressure from tariffs. Macklem recently warned that underlying inflation may be “firmer than we thought.” Money markets currently price just one more cut in 2025. The CPI data will help clarify whether tariff-driven cost pressures are gaining traction or being offset by weaker demand.

Also due Tuesday are US NY Fed manufacturing (July) and the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, which could reset expectations around Q4 supply guidance following last week’s headlines about potential output pause talks.

Wednesday

The focus on the UK continues with the release of June CPI. Expectations see headline Y/Y inflation ticking up slightly to 3.5% (from 3.4%), while core CPI is expected to remain flat at 3.5%. The May report showed a drop across headline, core, and services metrics as Easter distortions unwound, but Oxford Economics expects offsetting factors in June, including a smaller petrol drag and base effects. The report is unlikely to dramatically shift the MPC’s calculus, but with August’s meeting approaching, market pricing suggests a 78% chance of a cut. The CPI print will either reinforce or challenge that dovish pricing in light of labour market and demand-side data.

Across the Eurozone, May trade balance data is due, followed by US PPI and June industrial production. With CPI hitting earlier in the week, PPI will be evaluated for signs of pipeline pressure. Analysts will also assess whether industrial production rebounds from May’s stagnation as the US manufacturing complex contends with higher input costs and weakening export demand.