This week highlights include rate decisions from the RBA and BoE, while US ISM PMI, Swiss CPI and Canada Job Reports will also be key.

Monday

With the ongoing absence of official US government data, the upcoming ISM reports carry heightened importance. The Manufacturing ISM is scheduled for Monday, November 3rd, followed by the Services ISM on Wednesday, November 5th. The latest flash S&P Global readings, which serve as a guide for ISM expectations, showed Manufacturing rising to 52.2 (exp. & prev. 52) and Services increasing to 55.2 (exp. 53.5, prev. 54.2).

The report noted that business activity growth in October was the second-fastest so far this year, supported by the largest gain in new business seen in 2025 to date. Employment also improved, though only modestly, with signs of softening in the manufacturing sector.

The Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish tone at its previous meeting, emphasizing that inflation remains above target. Chair Powell reiterated that weakness in the labour market is not accelerating and emphasized that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, given diverging views within the FOMC on the future policy path. Ahead of that meeting, concerns had risen about persistent services inflation, which is less affected by tariff dynamics. As such, the price components of the upcoming PMIs will be closely monitored as an indicator of underlying inflation trends, while the employment metrics will be scrutinized for labour market signals amid the government shutdown and the absence of official data.

In Swiss, the September year-on-year CPI reading came in at 0.2%, matching the previous figure and defying expectations for a rise to 0.3%. This result brought the Q3 average to 0.2%, fully aligned with the Swiss National Bank’s projection from its September policy meeting, which had been revised up from 0.1% in June. Looking ahead, the SNB anticipates a Q4 average of 0.4%, though the September meeting minutes indicate this forecast largely reflects the minor upside surprise in Q3 rather than any new inflationary momentum.

The central bank continues to stress that uncertainty surrounding inflation remains high, yet all available indicators suggest price growth will stay within its 0–2% target range over the entire forecast horizon. Consequently, the upcoming October CPI release is expected to be uneventful, though markets will watch closely for any deviation from the SNB’s quarterly forecast—particularly a softer print, which could revive speculation about a return to negative rates. At present, however, the base case remains that Switzerland’s easing cycle has concluded, with the SNB Chairman emphasizing that “the bar to go into negative rates is higher than for a normal cut.”

Tuesday

The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its policy decision on Tuesday, with a recent Reuters poll showing unanimous expectations for the Cash Rate to remain unchanged at 3.60%. Money market pricing also strongly supports a hold, assigning a 92% probability to no change — a notable shift from earlier in the week, when odds stood closer to a 40% chance of a 25bps cut versus 60% for a hold.

At its previous meeting on September 30th, the RBA kept rates steady at 3.60% as expected, with a unanimous decision. The accompanying statement highlighted that while inflation has declined significantly from its 2022 peak, the pace of reduction in underlying inflation has slowed, and incoming data suggested that Q3 CPI could come in higher than projected in the August Statement on Monetary Policy. The Bank reaffirmed its reliance on quarterly trimmed mean inflation as its primary gauge, though Governor Bullock acknowledged that monthly CPI figures still provide useful signals.

The Board assessed that risks are now “broadly balanced,” citing upside pressures from resilient domestic demand and downside risks from potential household caution due to external uncertainties. The statement emphasized that the Bank remains “alert to the heightened level of uncertainty” and will adjust its stance as new data emerges.

At the post-meeting press conference, Governor Bullock maintained a flexible outlook, saying there could be “a couple more rate cuts or there could not be,” while refraining from offering explicit forward guidance and noting that additional data would be available by November. Since then, economic indicators have been mixed: labour market data disappointed, with Employment Change missing forecasts and the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.5% vs. expectations of 4.3% (prev. 4.2%), bolstering arguments for easing. However, both the Q2 quarterly CPI and the September monthly CPI printed stronger than expected, reversing earlier rate-cut expectations and prompting institutions such as CBA and Goldman Sachs to abandon their forecasts for a cut, now anticipating the RBA will keep rates on hold.

Wednesday

The US Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments on Wednesday in the case challenging President Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Policy. The hearing follows a Federal Circuit decision that ruled Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) when he imposed tariffs on multiple trading partners, including Mexico, Canada, and China.

According to EY, the Court will examine whether the IEEPA grants the president the power to levy tariffs beyond its original intent. Oral arguments are scheduled to last approximately one hour. Until a final ruling is issued — expected early next year — the current tariffs will remain in effect.

Bloomberg reports that prediction markets such as PredictIt and Polymarket assign roughly a 60% probability that the Court will rule against President Trump, a decision that could expose the government to substantial refund claims. Should the tariffs be invalidated, importers may pursue reimbursement; however, legal experts cited by Bloomberg caution that the process could prove “messy,” given the complex structure of refund mechanisms.

The US non-farm payrolls report was originally scheduled for Friday, November 7th; however, due to the ongoing US government shutdown, it is highly unlikely that the data will be released. As a result, both the September and October jobs reports remain outstanding.

During his press conference on Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell maintained a distinctly hawkish tone, stating that he does not see weakness in the labour market accelerating, although he acknowledged that the Fed has not yet received the September payroll figures. Powell added that state-level jobless claims data do not point to a significant deterioration in employment conditions.

While official data are delayed, the monthly ADP employment report is still expected on November 5th. In addition, ADP announced that it has begun publishing a weekly preliminary estimate of the ADP National Employment Report every Tuesday. The first of these weekly estimates showed an increase of 14,250 jobs for the four weeks ending October 11th.

As Powell repeatedly stressed during the press conference, the FOMC remains divided on the outlook for a December policy decision, with another rate cut “far from assured.” Consequently, any available employment data will be closely watched once the government reopens. For reference, money markets are currently pricing in approximately a 70% probability of a 25bps rate cut at the next meeting.

Thursday

The Bank of England is expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.0%, according to a Reuters survey in which 54 out of 63 economists anticipate a hold. Market pricing similarly reflects a 31% probability of this outcome. The decision is expected to pass by a 6-3 vote split, compared with September’s 7-2 result, when Dhingra and Taylor dissented in favour of a more dovish stance.

Since the August meeting — which delivered a “hawkish” cut as more policymakers than expected backed holding rates due to persistent inflation concerns — markets have largely priced the BoE to remain on pause. Recent data have done little to shift that view. September’s inflation print came in softer than expected, with Y/Y CPI falling short of the 4% projection that some had feared. However, with inflation still nearly twice the MPC’s 2% target and wage growth remaining inconsistent with the Bank’s mandate, the softer reading has not been enough to justify immediate easing.

While the BoE has a track record of surprising markets, policymakers have so far refrained from signalling any intention to loosen policy at the November meeting, opting instead to wait for the outcome of the November 26th budget. Press reports ahead of the event suggest the government may pursue a tax-hike/low-growth fiscal package, which could eventually warrant a more accommodative response from the MPC. Still, officials are unlikely to act pre-emptively before the budget is confirmed.

Looking beyond November, the softer September CPI data have strengthened expectations for a potential rate cut in December, with markets pricing such an outcome at around 64%. Alongside Thursday’s policy decision, the MPC will publish its latest Monetary Policy Report, with Morgan Stanley expecting the Bank’s medium-term projections to remain broadly consistent with those presented in August.

Friday

The upcoming labour market report will be closely watched for signs of how Canada’s employment landscape is holding up amid escalating trade tensions with the United States. The Bank of Canada noted this week that the labour market remains soft. Employment increased modestly in September after two consecutive months of sizable losses, but job cuts continue to accumulate in trade-sensitive sectors. The Bank also highlighted that hiring remains subdued across most parts of the economy, while the unemployment rate held at 7.1% in September and wage growth has slowed.

Additionally, the BoC pointed out that slower population growth means fewer new jobs are now required to maintain a steady employment rate. At this week’s policy meeting, the central bank lowered its key rate to 2.25%, aligning with the lower bound of its estimated neutral rate range. It also indicated that the rate-cutting cycle has likely concluded, suggesting that monetary policy is currently well calibrated.

The Bank further cautioned that structural damage from ongoing trade frictions is constraining the effectiveness of monetary policy in stimulating demand while maintaining price stability. As a result, this particular jobs report is unlikely to significantly alter expectations for BoC policy, unless it signals a renewed deterioration in employment conditions.

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