This week highlights include RBNZ meeting, Canada, UK & Japan Inflation and the most important Jackson Hole Symposium.

Monday

The week begins quietly with no scheduled major economic releases or central bank events. Markets will remain in wait-and-see mode ahead of Tuesday’s Canadian CPI and the run of mid-week policy meetings.

Tuesday

Attention turns to North America, where the US issues July building permits alongside Canada’s July CPI report. While US housing data will feed into growth assessments, Canadian inflation is the primary driver. The Bank of Canada left rates at 2.75% in July, a level it identifies as the midpoint of neutral, and minutes showed confidence that inflation expectations remain anchored. Tariff-related price effects have so far been modest, with wage and unit labour cost growth easing, and a stronger CAD lowering import prices. Headline inflation is expected to peak at just 2.5% even in adverse tariff scenarios, which limits urgency to tighten policy further. For markets, a softer CPI print would support the view that the BoC is likely to remain on hold, while weakness in growth indicators could reopen discussions of potential cuts later this year.

Wednesday

A dense schedule of central bank activity dominates. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to cut its Official Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.00%, with money markets pricing an 89% probability. The RBNZ previously signalled further easing if medium-term inflation pressures continued to fade. Recent data – softer-than-expected CPI (0.5% Q/Q, 2.7% Y/Y), a Q2 contraction in jobs, and a rise in unemployment – bolster the case for easing. Officials have repeatedly highlighted tariff-related uncertainty and the risk of weaker global demand suppressing investment and inflation.

From the Federal Reserve, minutes of the July FOMC will be parsed for detail on the balance of risks. The Fed held steady at 4.25–4.50%, though Waller and Bowman dissented in favour of a 25bps cut. Chair Powell leaned hawkish in his press conference, pushing back on September cut expectations while reiterating policy is “modestly restrictive.” Traders will scrutinise the minutes for any tilt toward rate reductions, particularly in light of July’s softer payrolls, CPI in line with forecasts, but hotter-than-expected PPI.

Asia will also be in focus, with the Bank of Indonesia announcement and China’s Loan Prime Rate setting. The PBoC is expected to leave its 1-year LPR at 3.00% and 5-year at 3.50%, having already cut aggressively in May. With rates already low, officials are expected to prefer fiscal levers over further monetary easing, preserving room in case of worsening trade tensions.

The UK releases July CPI, where expectations are for another upside surprise. Pantheon Macroeconomics projects headline inflation at 3.7% and services at 4.8%, both above the BoE’s May MPR forecasts. The MPC faces a dilemma: stick to its quarterly pace of cuts or adjust if inflation persists. Markets are pushing expectations for the next rate cut into 2026, and an upside print could reinforce this.

Eurozone final July CPI will be released in the same session, though it is expected to largely confirm the preliminary estimates.

Thursday

The spotlight shifts to the opening of the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Chair Powell is confirmed to speak on Friday, but other Fed officials will already set the tone. Markets are watching whether the dovish repricing post-NFP is validated or resisted, with divisions evident among FOMC members. Treasury Secretary Bessent has called for an aggressive 50bps cut in September, though most Fed officials appear more cautious.

Alongside Jackson Hole, flash August PMIs from the US, UK, and Eurozone provide a timely read on business momentum. In the UK, services slipped last month to 51.2 and composite to 51.0, and while analysts expect a modest rebound, uncertainty over autumn tax hikes and slowing rate cuts may limit momentum. In the Eurozone, manufacturing is expected at 49.5, services at 50.7, and composite at 50.6. Recent sentiment indicators (Ifo, ZEW) showed deterioration, suggesting growth headwinds persist. For the US, focus will be on whether services remain resilient or begin to soften in line with weaker labour market data.

Eurozone consumer confidence for August rounds out the session, expected to remain subdued.

Friday

The second day of Jackson Hole will feature Chair Powell’s keynote address, scheduled for 15:00BST/10:00EDT, where he is expected to frame the Fed’s reaction function into the September meeting.

Japan releases July CPI, with core inflation forecast to ease to 3.0% Y/Y from 3.3%. Lower utility costs are offsetting rising food prices, though services inflation remains sticky amid wage gains and firm domestic demand. While the trend is lower, markets are monitoring persistence in underlying inflation, with modest tightening priced into BoJ expectations after the strong Q2 GDP print.

Germany publishes detailed Q2 GDP figures, while the UK issues July retail sales. High-frequency indicators point to modest payback after strong June non-store and non-food sales, with Oxford Economics pencilling in a 0.2% M/M decline. Elevated costs from the Budget and soft consumer sentiment remain headwinds.

Canada rounds out the week with June retail sales. Together with Tuesday’s CPI, the data will provide the BoC with a clearer picture of household resilience in the face of tariff uncertainty.

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