This week highlights include US-China trade deal, New Zealand inflation, UK jobs & Australia report and UK GDP will be the key.

Monday

The United States and China have agreed to prolong their existing trade truce by another year after reaching a new framework during talks between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi in South Korea on November 1st. This extension effectively pushes the truce’s expiration to November 10th, 2026. The White House hailed the outcome as a “massive victory” in its official statement.

As part of the agreement, China will suspend all retaliatory tariffs implemented since March 2025, lift export controls on rare earths and other key minerals, and resume large-scale imports of US agricultural goods — including a commitment to purchase at least 12mln metric tons of soybeans by the end of the year. In exchange, Washington will cut tariffs linked to fentanyl-related measures by 10ppts and extend Section 301 tariff exclusions through late 2026.

The Bank of Japan will publish the Summary of Opinions from its October 29th–30th policy meeting next week, where the central bank, as expected, held interest rates steady at 0.50% in a 7–2 vote. Board members Takata and Tamura remained the dissenters, advocating for a 25bps rate hike.

The statement contained no major changes in tone, reaffirming that the BoJ will continue to raise the policy rate if economic and price developments align with its projections. It emphasized the need to carefully assess whether those projections will materialize, without any pre-set assumptions, given heightened uncertainty surrounding trade policy and its economic impact. The central bank reiterated that monetary policy will be conducted appropriately to sustainably and stably achieve its 2% inflation goal.

In its Outlook Report, the BoJ projected that underlying consumer inflation will stagnate in the near term due to slowing growth but gradually rise thereafter, reaching levels broadly consistent with the 2% target during the latter half of the projection period—fiscal 2025 through 2027. The median forecasts for Real GDP and Core CPI were largely unchanged, apart from a slight upward revision to FY25 Real GDP.

During the post-meeting press conference, Governor Ueda offered limited insight into the timing of future rate normalization, stressing there is “no pre-set idea” for the next hike. He explained that the decision to refrain from raising rates reflects continued uncertainties in global economies and trade policy. Ueda also noted that the likelihood of meeting the bank’s outlook has increased but emphasized the need for additional data before adjusting the degree of monetary easing.

Tuesday

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Q4 Survey of Expectations will be a key focus ahead of the upcoming policy meeting on November 26th, which marks the final gathering for 2025. In the previous survey, two-year-ahead inflation expectations stood at 2.28%, comfortably within the RBNZ’s 1–3% target band.

While the central bank maintained an easing bias at its October meeting, the recent uptick in headline inflation to 3% has introduced uncertainty regarding the timing and scale of any future rate cuts. Market pricing for the November 26th decision currently implies around 27bps of easing — equivalent to a fully priced 25bps cut and a 9% probability of a larger 50bps move.

September’s unemployment rate is expected to edge higher to 4.9% (prev. 4.8%), while the headline earnings metric is forecast to hold steady at 5.0%. The ex-bonus measure is anticipated to ease slightly to 4.6% (prev. 4.7%). Pantheon Economics expects the three-month average figure to moderate to 4.3% (prev. 4.4%), which is softer than the BoE’s 4.7% projection.

The release follows the Bank of England’s November meeting, where Governor Bailey emphasized inflation as the primary focus. Still, any moderation in wage growth could offer some early reassurance to policymakers. However, the BoE’s Decision Maker Panel continues to highlight persistent wage pressures, with expected pay growth among firms remaining elevated. Wage growth is projected to decline only modestly over the next year, and the pace of wage disinflation is expected to slow.

Overall, the labour data will provide further insight into underlying inflation trends, though market and policy attention will remain centered on the next two CPI releases and the November Budget ahead of the December policy announcement.

Wednesday

There are currently no market forecasts available for Australia’s October employment report. In September, Employment Change registered at +14.9k (prev. +20.5k), the Participation Rate stood at 67% (prev. 66.8%), and the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.5% (prev. 4.3%).

Westpac expects the upcoming data to indicate a gradual cooling in labour conditions rather than a sharp downturn. The bank projects employment to rise by +15k in October, with the jobless rate easing slightly to 4.4%. It notes that employment growth has slowed to 1.5% Y/Y on a three-month average, below the long-run trend of 1.9%, pointing to weaker momentum in the labour-intensive “care economy” and uneven recovery across the market sector. A small dip in the participation rate to 66.9% is also anticipated.

The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by 25bps, as expected, bringing it to 2.25% — the lower bound of the BoC’s estimated neutral range. Despite this move, the central bank maintained its view of the neutral rate, implying that any additional rate cuts from here would be considered accommodative.

The BoC characterized current interest rates as “about the right level,” suggesting limited scope for further easing. Policymakers appear inclined to assess the impact of recent rate reductions before taking additional action, contingent on how economic conditions evolve. However, the statement emphasized that if the outlook shifts materially, the Bank stands ready to respond.

The BoC also highlighted that structural damage from the ongoing trade conflict has reduced the economy’s capacity and raised costs, thereby constraining the extent to which monetary policy can stimulate demand while keeping inflation low. These remarks, together with the cautious tone of the statement, indicate a clear holding bias. The upcoming minutes will be closely examined to determine whether this bias was broadly supported within the Governing Council.

Thursday

Data attention returns to Europe and the UK, with the UK GDP print for September and Q3 in focus alongside the Eurozone Industrial Production release for September. UK growth has been tepid amid high borrowing costs and subdued consumer spending, while Eurozone manufacturing continues to lag, with Germany’s factory weakness weighing on bloc-wide output. Markets will also parse the US Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast for October and New Zealand’s Manufacturing PMI for November, a bellwether for Kiwi export performance. The IEA’s Oil Market Report will provide a complementary read to OPEC’s assessment, particularly regarding winter demand and the evolving global inventory outlook.

Friday

There are currently no available forecasts for China’s October activity data. In September, Industrial Production rose 6.5% Y/Y (prev. 5.0%), Retail Sales increased 3.0% (prev. 2.9%), and Fixed Asset Investment declined -0.5% (prev. +0.1%).

ING anticipates that October’s figures will reflect further moderation in economic momentum. Retail Sales are expected to ease to 2.6% Y/Y as the effect of trade-in incentives wanes. Investment activity is projected to soften further, with Fixed Asset Investment seen at -0.8% Y/Y amid weak business sentiment. Industrial Production is likely to remain comparatively steady but slow to 5.7% Y/Y, aligning with recent softness in PMI readings. The data release will be accompanied by a press briefing from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

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