This week highlights will be on the ECB and PBoC LPR rate decisions. Global PMI surveys will also be eyed, as well as the UK Retail Sales.

Monday

The People's Bank of China is widely expected to leave both the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively. The central bank last moved in May, when it delivered a suite of easing measures including cuts to the LPRs, deposit rates, and PBoC funding rates. Since then, the urgency for further stimulus has diminished: Q2 GDP surprised to the upside, Industrial Production exceeded forecasts in June, and U.S.–China trade tensions have temporarily cooled following June talks in London.

The lack of immediate downward pressure in key growth and inflation metrics gives the PBoC room to pause. However, with domestic demand still patchy Retail Sales notably disappointed the door remains open for further easing later in the year, particularly if the external environment sours again.

Canada's PPI for June, New Zealand’s June trade balance, and the U.S. Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) round out the day. The LEI will be watched closely for signs of sequential improvement, given the recent softening in forward-looking U.S. indicators.

Tuesday

The UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing data for June will offer insights into fiscal headroom ahead of the Autumn Budget. Investors will scrutinize whether tax receipts and spending pressures align with expectations for potential tax hikes later this year especially as speculation around tighter fiscal policy continues to grow.

Stateside, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July is on deck. The prior release highlighted ongoing softness in the Mid-Atlantic manufacturing base. Given broader signs of weakness in ISM and regional surveys, another contractionary print could reinforce expectations of Fed easing in Q4, even as core inflation remains sticky.

Wednesday

The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash estimate for July will help shape expectations for Q3 consumption. With the region facing mounting trade headwinds particularly from escalating EU–US tensions investors will gauge whether consumer sentiment is beginning to fracture.

The prior reading sat at -14.0, well below long-run averages. Any further deterioration could amplify downside risks to the ECB’s inflation forecast, particularly as currency appreciation and tariffs weigh on price dynamics. The data also come just ahead of the ECB’s policy meeting, giving markets a final barometer of domestic resilience.

Thursday

A blockbuster session is in store with central bank decisions from both the European Central Bank and Turkey’s CBRT, alongside July flash PMIs for the Eurozone, UK, and US.

The ECB is expected to hold rates steady, with markets pricing in a 94% probability of no change. The Governing Council cut by 25bps in June and signaled that policy was now "well-positioned." Since then, the macro picture has worsened. President Trump’s threat to impose a 30% tariff on EU imports by August 1st has heightened trade uncertainty and raised the likelihood of retaliatory measures, which could sap both business confidence and consumption.

Despite an appreciating euro and the ECB’s 2026 inflation forecast sitting at just 1.6%, officials are not expected to accelerate cuts. Reporting ahead of the meeting suggests the Governing Council will discuss a more adverse scenario than in June, but any formal response will likely be deferred until the September update. For now, the ECB meeting is expected to be a placeholder event.

Flash Eurozone PMIs are forecast to show continued albeit sluggish expansion. The composite is expected at 50.9 (prev. 50.6), with manufacturing at 49.7 and services at 50.8. Oxford Economics flags that financial sentiment surveys suggest stability, but Trump's tariff threat looms large. The inflation and employment subcomponents will be particularly scrutinized for signs of future ECB action.

UK PMIs are also set to show modest improvement. July’s services PMI is seen at 52.9 (prev. 52.8), manufacturing at 48.0 (prev. 47.7), and the composite at 51.8 (prev. 52.0). While the UK–US trade deal has eased some external worries, domestic concerns such as looming tax hikes continue to cap optimism. The data are unlikely to sway the BoE outlook materially, with markets still pricing 50bps of cuts by year-end.

In the US, weekly jobless claims, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and Canadian retail sales for May will round out the session.

Friday

The week ends with a heavy data slate featuring UK retail sales, Japanese CPI, German Ifo, EZ money supply, and US durable goods orders.

UK retail sales are forecast to bounce back with a +1.1% m/m print in June, reversing May’s steep -2.7% decline. Core retail sales are also seen rebounding +1.0% m/m. While the BRC survey showed strong Y/Y growth at 2.7%, analysts caution that inflation not volume is driving much of the nominal gains. Barclaycard’s consumer report noted continued caution in discretionary spending despite warm weather. These nuances will shape market expectations ahead of the Autumn Budget and BoE policy trajectory.

Japan's CPI print for July will carry added weight in the wake of Sunday’s election. If fiscal stimulus appears imminent, inflation dynamics will take on fresh significance for BoJ policy.

Germany’s Ifo survey will help calibrate sentiment around Europe’s largest economy. The prior reading showed a slight uptick in expectations, but the outlook remains fragile amid external pressures.

Eurozone M3 money supply data and US durable goods orders (June) round out the day. In the US, a rebound in core capital goods orders would bolster hopes for capex resilience in H2, especially as fiscal negotiations intensify heading into the final quarter.

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