This week highlights include US CPI, the BLS benchmark revisions, ECB rate decision, OPEC-8, French No Confidence Vote, Chinese Inflation & Trade, Japanese GDP, and the latest Apple Event.

Monday

The week begins with Japan’s Q2 GDP release, expected to confirm growth at 0.3% Q/Q, unchanged from the flash estimate. The expansion was driven by robust business investment and a rebound in net exports, offsetting a drag from inventories. While confirmation should be straightforward, the numbers are increasingly stale following President Trump’s move to implement a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports. Pharma and semiconductors remain under discussion, with Tokyo pushing for most-favoured-nation treatment. Analysts caution that while Q2 prints show resilience, Japan faces fresh headwinds from tariffs that may weigh on H2 performance. ING highlights producer price pressures remain elevated, with August PPI expected at 2.7% YoY, underscoring pipeline inflation risks.

Germany reports July industrial output, offering a timely read on Europe’s largest economy, while the Eurozone Sentix index for September provides a snapshot of investor sentiment across the bloc. Both will be assessed against a backdrop of renewed trade frictions and still-fragile manufacturing conditions.

In the U.S., August employment trends are due, with investors still digesting the weaker-than-expected payrolls print last Friday that underscored a cooling labour market. The data will feed into Fed expectations ahead of the September 17th meeting.

China’s August trade balance will also draw close scrutiny. While no forecasts have been issued, ING expects export growth to slow to around 3.8% YoY, while imports pick up to 6.2% YoY, aided by base effects. The backdrop remains the extended U.S.–China tariff truce, which has kept duties static. No major new trade developments have emerged since last month.

French politics add a layer of risk with Prime Minister Bayrou facing a confidence vote on his fiscal programme. He is widely expected to lose, opening the door for President Macron to appoint a new PM—likely Finance Minister Lombard, given his ties to the Socialists—or to call early elections. Both options risk deepening political instability, especially with polls suggesting little change in the fragmented parliament and a strong showing for the National Rally possible. The OAT–Bund 10yr spread is biased wider as investors brace for further uncertainty. Attention will then turn to Macron’s next move and to Fitch’s review on Friday, with France rated AA-, negative.

Tuesday

Focus turns to the 80th UN General Assembly, where Iran will face heightened scrutiny after the UK, France, and Germany triggered the snapback mechanism to restore UN sanctions over Tehran’s nuclear non-compliance. Iran has threatened to suspend maritime security cooperation, including in the Strait of Hormuz, should sanctions be reinstated. Separately, several Western nations are preparing to recognise a Palestinian state in response to the Gaza crisis, though this does not constitute full UN membership given U.S. veto power at the Security Council. The geopolitical backdrop has the potential to stir energy markets and risk sentiment.

Apple headlines in the corporate space with its September 9th event. Investors expect the unveiling of the iPhone 17 lineup, with Morgan Stanley forecasting a price hike—the first since 2017. The iPhone 17 Air is set to debut with a slimmer design, new C1 modem, and a USD 100 premium over the 16 Plus, while the Pro starts at USD 1,099 for 256GB. A 1TB Air model will price at USD 1,399. MS expects a 5% boost in average selling prices in FY26, above consensus, with demand intact. New Apple Watches and AirPods are also expected, though no major Apple Intelligence updates are anticipated. JPMorgan highlights potential upside surprises from consumer reception of the Air model and pricing strategy in China, where sub-CNY 6,000 devices qualify for a 15% discount. Supply-chain feedback suggests Apple is planning 10–15mln units for H2, but upside remains if demand outperforms.

On the macro side, the BLS releases preliminary benchmark revisions to U.S. payrolls. Bank of America expects downward adjustments of 500k–1mln, implying March 2025 payrolls were overstated by 40–85k per month. Final revisions arrive in February, but the preliminary estimate will recalibrate the labour market narrative and could feed into Fed deliberations.

Wednesday

China’s August inflation data takes centre stage. July CPI was flat YoY, marginally better than June’s –0.1% decline, while core rose to 0.8%, its highest in 17 months. Analysts warn structural headwinds—property weakness and fragile consumer demand—keep risks skewed to disinflation. ING expects August CPI to slip back into negative territory at –0.1% YoY. With authorities deploying targeted stimulus, markets will be alert for signs of persistent deflation risks.

In Scandinavia, Sweden reports July monthly GDP, and Norway publishes August CPI. SEB forecasts CPI-ATE at 3.1%, steady from July, with higher food prices driving stability. Norges Bank held rates at 4.25% in its last meeting, signalling caution but opening the door to gradual cuts. SEB, ING, and Goldman Sachs expect a 25bp reduction at the September meeting if disinflation continues.

The U.S. August PPI will also be closely watched, particularly for goods categories, after Friday’s soft jobs report intensified bets on a September Fed cut.

Thursday

The European Central Bank delivers its September decision, with 66 of 69 economists in a Reuters survey expecting no change, leaving the deposit rate at 2.0%. Inflation dynamics remain close to target, with August HICP at 2.1% and super-core steady at 2.3%. Growth indicators have firmed modestly, with the composite PMI at a one-year high. Governing Council divisions remain: dovish voices stress downside risks to inflation, while hawks argue policy is already supportive. Markets see a 50% chance of a cut by March. With no policy fireworks expected, focus will be on updated macro projections, particularly the 2026 inflation outlook, likely revised up to 1.9% from 1.6%. Lagarde will also face questions on France’s fiscal turmoil and whether backstops like the TPI could be deployed.

Turkey’s CBRT is expected to cut rates by 200bps, trimming the policy rate while keeping it above headline CPI to discourage dollarisation. JPMorgan sees additional 200bp cuts in October and November, taking rates to 37% by year-end. Risks remain tilted to the upside for inflation, with TRY depreciation and rising energy costs complicating the policy path.

The U.S. CPI is the key global event. Consensus looks for +0.3% M/M on both headline and core. Barclays expects upside pressure from goods prices as tariffs filter through supply chains, projecting stronger core goods contributions in coming months. With jobs data softening—August payrolls just 22k—the Fed is fully priced for a 25bp cut on September 17th. Barclays cautions that inflation upside alone is unlikely to derail the move.

Friday

Russia’s CBR sets policy at week’s end, with focus on whether policymakers lean more dovish amid slowing domestic demand.

Japan reports July industrial output, Germany publishes final August CPI, and the UK prints July GDP. Expectations are for +0.1% M/M growth, softer than June’s +0.4%, keeping Q2 Q/Q at +0.3%. ING warned Q2 growth was inflated by government consumption tied to vaccinations, not underlying strength. Investec expects July services to be lifted by strong summer activity, offset by strikes in healthcare, and sees manufacturing holding up. A consensus outcome would underpin expectations for a solid Q3, pencilled at +0.4% Q/Q. For the BoE, the data will shape policy caution heading into autumn.

France and Spain also release final August CPI prints, while the U.S. University of Michigan preliminary survey rounds out the week, giving updated inflation expectations and consumer sentiment ahead of the Fed meeting.

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